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How many copies did Mahou Arms sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 16k–26k
$179k–$482k after Steam's cut $326k–$741k before the cut
from 657 reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Mahou Arms out and predicted the genre from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Mahou Arms's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 29.5M–33.4M
best case 31.7M (Cyberpunk 2077)
Games like Mahou Arms

The middle of these games

≈ 29.5M–33.4M copies

≈ $206.5M–$472.9M after Steam's cut

from ~776k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.2M–39.3M copies, ≈ $399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (3 of 3) and Building (2 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut $725.5M–$1650.4M before the cut
$59.99
975k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.7M–43.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut $200.2M–$455.4M before the cut
$14.99
776k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.