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How many copies did ELDEN RING sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 28.6M–46.4M
$471.3M–$1267.1M after Steam's cut $856.9M–$1949.4M before the cut
from 1.2M reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left ELDEN RING out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including ELDEN RING's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 21.3M–30.7M
best case 39.3M (Black Myth: Wukong)
Games like ELDEN RING

The middle of these games

≈ 21.3M–30.7M copies

≈ $189.3M–$711.2M after Steam's cut

from ~499k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Souls-like (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Black Myth: Wukong at ≈ 30.0M–48.7M copies, ≈ $494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 268k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 129k to 836k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Souls-like (4 of 8) and Fantasy (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mythology + Action RPG, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before the cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Black Myth: Wukong
2024
Est. copies
≈ 30.0M–48.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut $899.1M–$2045.4M before the cut
$59.99
1.2M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MythologyAction RPG
DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$301.6M–$810.8M after Steam's cut $548.3M–$1247.4M before the cut
$59.99
439k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 10.2M–16.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$168.6M–$453.2M after Steam's cut $306.5M–$697.3M before the cut
$59.99
355k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Souls-likeDifficult
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.2M–70.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut
$49.99
885k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.2M–31.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut $144.2M–$328.1M before the cut
$14.99
559k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Baldur's Gate 3
2023
Est. copies
≈ 21.2M–34.4M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$349.3M–$939.1M after Steam's cut $635.1M–$1444.8M before the cut
$59.99
854k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPGCharacter Customization
Vampire Survivors
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$9.0M–$24.2M after Steam's cut $16.4M–$37.3M before the cut
$4.99
265k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell

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