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How many copies did Winter Ember sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 3k–5k
$23k–$63k after Steam's cut $42k–$96k before the cut
from 114 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Winter Ember out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Winter Ember's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 25.8M–33.6M
best case 39.3M (Black Myth: Wukong)
Games like Winter Ember

The middle of these games

≈ 25.8M–33.6M copies

≈ $231.9M–$779.9M after Steam's cut

from ~505k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Black Myth: Wukong at ≈ 30.0M–48.7M copies, ≈ $494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (6 of 8) and Story Rich (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mythology + Action RPG, priced around $60.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$301.6M–$810.8M after Steam's cut $548.3M–$1247.4M before the cut
$59.99
439k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.1M–39.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut $301.5M–$685.8M before the cut
$24.99
494k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut $725.5M–$1650.4M before the cut
$59.99
975k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.2M–70.2M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut
$49.99
885k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
Black Myth: Wukong
2024
Est. copies
≈ 30.0M–48.7M
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut $899.1M–$2045.4M before the cut
$59.99
1.2M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MythologyAction RPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
2011
Est. copies
≈ 20.1M–32.6M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before the cut
$19.99
318k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Monster Hunter: World
2018
Est. copies
≈ 15.7M–25.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$129.4M–$347.8M after Steam's cut $235.2M–$535.1M before the cut
$29.99
516k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer

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