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How many copies did Cave Story+ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 525k–853k
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.9M before the cut
from 8k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Cave Story+ out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Cave Story+'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.1M–9.9M
best case 25.3M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Cave Story+

The middle of these games

≈ 4.1M–9.9M copies

≈ $37.5M–$77.9M after Steam's cut

from ~111k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.2M–31.3M copies, ≈ $79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Metroidvania (3 of 4) and Platformer (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ori and the Blind Forest: Definitive Edition
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$16.3M–$43.9M after Steam's cut $29.7M–$67.6M before the cut
$19.99
71k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AtmosphericGreat Soundtrack
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.9M–$80.3M after Steam's cut $54.3M–$123.5M before the cut
$29.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.1M–5.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.6M–$58.2M after Steam's cut $39.4M–$89.5M before the cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.2M–31.3M
5.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut $144.2M–$328.1M before the cut
$14.99
559k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.