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How many copies did Alan Wake's American Nightmare sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 677k–1.1M
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.0M–$6.9M before the cut
from 11k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Alan Wake's American Nightmare out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Alan Wake's American Nightmare's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 29.0M–52.2M
best case 87.5M (Left 4 Dead 2)
Games like Alan Wake's American Nightmare

The middle of these games

≈ 29.0M–52.2M copies

≈ $148.1M–$241.9M after Steam's cut

from ~846k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 66.7M–108.4M copies, ≈ $183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Survival (3 of 4) and Co-op (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 66.7M–108.4M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut $333.1M–$757.9M before the cut
$9.99
1.1M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.7M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.0M–$250.0M after Steam's cut $169.0M–$384.6M before the cut
$14.99
542k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.