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wishvane

How many copies did Balatro sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4.9M–8.0M
$20.2M–$54.4M after Steam's cut $36.8M–$83.7M before the cut
from 198k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Balatro out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Balatro's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 310k–2.6M
best case 8.2M (Slay the Spire)
Games like Balatro

The middle of these games

≈ 310k–2.6M copies

≈ $1.3M–$25.3M after Steam's cut

from ~17k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Slay the Spire at ≈ 6.3M–10.2M copies, ≈ $43.1M–$116.0M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1k to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Deckbuilding (4 of 4) and Rogue-like (4 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Roguelike Deckbuilder + Card Game, priced around $25.
The era
Only 1 of your 4 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.2M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.1M–$116.0M after Steam's cut $78.4M–$178.5M before the cut
$24.99
218k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Monster Train
2020
Est. copies
≈ 569k–924k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before the cut
$24.99
23k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Card BattlerRogue-lite
Dungeons & Degenerate Gamblers
2024
Est. copies
≈ 88k–143k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$362k–$973k after Steam's cut $658k–$1.5M before the cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Luck be a Landlord
2023
Est. copies
≈ 286k–464k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$785k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before the cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.