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How many copies did Age of Water sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 87k–142k
$720k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Age of Water out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Age of Water's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 27.0M–51.6M
best case 55.6M (Rust)
Games like Age of Water

The middle of these games

≈ 27.0M–51.6M copies

≈ $347.3M–$501.7M after Steam's cut

from ~529k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

6 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Rust at ≈ 42.4M–68.9M copies, ≈ $466.2M–$1253.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (6 of 8) and Survival (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Crafting, priced around $40.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.4M–68.9M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$466.2M–$1253.5M after Steam's cut $847.6M–$1928.4M before the cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.1M–39.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut $301.5M–$685.8M before the cut
$24.99
494k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.2M–49.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$207.3M–$557.3M after Steam's cut $376.9M–$857.4M before the cut
$24.99
477k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$195.8M–$526.4M after Steam's cut $356.0M–$809.9M before the cut
$49.99
469k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Feral Blue
2019
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$39k–$104k after Steam's cut $71k–$160k before the cut
$19.99
245 reviews
Mixed
AdventureStrategy
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
780k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
Capsa
2022
Est. copies
≈ 6k–10k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
255 reviews
Mixed
Character CustomizationOpen World

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