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How many copies did Heretical sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 26k–42k
$105k–$283k after Steam's cut $192k–$436k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Heretical out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Heretical's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.1M–8.0M
best case 33.1M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Heretical

The middle of these games

≈ 3.1M–8.0M copies

≈ $9.2M–$77.1M after Steam's cut

from ~111k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.2M–41.0M copies, ≈ $104.0M–$279.6M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 42k to 63k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Rogue-like (8 of 8) and Action Roguelike (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike + Rogue-like, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hades
2020
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.4M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$52.5M–$141.0M after Steam's cut $95.4M–$217.0M before the cut
$24.99
308k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-lite
Brotato
2023
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.0M–$10.8M after Steam's cut $7.3M–$16.6M before the cut
$4.99
118k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Dead Cells
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.0M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$38.2M–$102.8M after Steam's cut $69.5M–$158.2M before the cut
$24.99
183k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction Roguelike
The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.2M–41.0M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$104.0M–$279.6M after Steam's cut $189.1M–$430.1M before the cut
$14.99
450k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Spelunky
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.3M–$11.7M after Steam's cut $7.9M–$18.0M before the cut
$14.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
Gunfire Reborn
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.1M–$38.0M after Steam's cut $25.7M–$58.4M before the cut
$19.99
104k reviews
Very Positive
Risk of Rain (2013)
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.2M–$13.9M after Steam's cut $9.4M–$21.4M before the cut
$9.99
30k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
The Binding of Isaac
2011
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.4M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.4M–$14.6M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.5M before the cut
$4.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like

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