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How many copies did Call of Duty®: Black Ops III sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 309k–502k
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before the cut
from 6k reviews (Mostly Negative)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Call of Duty®: Black Ops III out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Call of Duty®: Black Ops III's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 17.3M–33.8M
best case 87.5M (Left 4 Dead 2)
Games like Call of Duty®: Black Ops III

The middle of these games

≈ 17.3M–33.8M copies

≈ $91.2M–$321.9M after Steam's cut

from ~481k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 66.7M–108.4M copies, ≈ $183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Survival (5 of 8) and Zombies (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
The era
The games you compared span 2004 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
DOOM
2016
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$50.6M–$136.0M after Steam's cut $92.0M–$209.3M before the cut
$19.99
221k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSGore
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$195.8M–$526.4M after Steam's cut $356.0M–$809.9M before the cut
$49.99
469k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Half-Life 2
2004
Est. copies
≈ 17.6M–28.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$48.3M–$130.0M after Steam's cut $87.9M–$200.0M before the cut
$9.99
278k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
FPSAction
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.1M–39.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut $301.5M–$685.8M before the cut
$24.99
494k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Left 4 Dead 2
2009
Est. copies
≈ 66.7M–108.4M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut $333.1M–$757.9M before the cut
$9.99
1.1M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesCo-op

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