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How many copies did VERGE:Lost chapter sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 153k–248k
$42k–$112k after Steam's cut $76k–$172k before the cut
from 3k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left VERGE:Lost chapter out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including VERGE:Lost chapter's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–6.1M
best case 12.7M (Assetto Corsa)
Games like VERGE:Lost chapter

The middle of these games

≈ 1.2M–6.1M copies

≈ $7.6M–$51.1M after Steam's cut

from ~55k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Assetto Corsa at ≈ 9.7M–15.8M copies, ≈ $53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (4 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Automobile Sim, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.7M–15.8M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut $97.1M–$220.9M before the cut
$19.99
173k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
The Isle
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.5M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$32.0M–$86.1M after Steam's cut $58.2M–$132.5M before the cut
$19.99
119k reviews
Very Positive
DinosaursSurvival
Viscera Cleanup Detail
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.1M before the cut
$12.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationGore
House Party
2022
Est. copies
≈ 382k–621k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.6M–$7.1M after Steam's cut $4.8M–$10.9M before the cut
$24.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
NudityMature
The Long Dark
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.9M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$23.4M–$62.8M after Steam's cut $42.5M–$96.6M before the cut
$19.99
123k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
Miscreated
2018
Est. copies
≈ 960k–1.6M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$7.9M–$21.3M after Steam's cut $14.4M–$32.8M before the cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Mixed
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Just Survive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesSurvival
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 837k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.1M before the cut
$17.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter

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