How much revenue did Little Nightmares II make?

$11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Little Nightmares II sell?

Q: How many copies did Little Nightmares II sell?

1.4M to 2.4M copies, based on its 58k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.4M–2.4M; $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.4M before the cut; from 58k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Little Nightmares II out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Little Nightmares II's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 25.9M–31.2M

best case 87.5M (Left 4 Dead 2)

Games like Little Nightmares II

The middle of these games

≈ 25.9M–31.2M copies

≈ $171.5M–$305.8M after Steam's cut

from ~553k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 66.7M–108.4M copies, ≈ $183.2M–$492.6M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Survival (5 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $7. The breakout hits carry FPS + Shooter + Action; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2009 to 2018, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 38 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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