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How many copies did Paradise Lost sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 62k–101k
$256k–$689k after Steam's cut $466k–$1.1M before the cut
from 3k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Paradise Lost out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paradise Lost's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6k–2.2M
best case 5.4M (Firewatch)
Games like Paradise Lost

The middle of these games

≈ 6k–2.2M copies

≈ $16k–$26.1M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

4 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Firewatch at ≈ 4.1M–6.7M copies, ≈ $22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 95 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 17 to 2k.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Exploration (8 of 8) and Underground (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Firewatch
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
24x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$93.9M before the cut
$19.99
99k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAtmospheric
Urbex Night Security
2023
Est. copies
≈ 645–1k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$885–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before the cut
$4.99
26 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessExploration
Refund Me If You Can
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3k–5k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$15k before the cut
$3.99
134 reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorExploration
THE LONGING
2020
Est. copies
≈ 184k–300k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$760k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.1M before the cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickWalking Simulator
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
13x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before the cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Close Your Eyes [Old Version]
2015
Est. copies
≈ 38k–62k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
782 reviews
Very Positive
Choose Your Own AdventureExploration
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
16x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.4M–$49.5M after Steam's cut $33.4M–$76.1M before the cut
$39.99
67k reviews
Very Positive
Story RichOpen World
The Door in the Basement
2021
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$38k after Steam's cut $26k–$59k before the cut
$10.99
189 reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric

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