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How many copies did Mafia: Definitive Edition sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
$30.1M–$80.8M after Steam's cut $54.6M–$124.3M before the cut
from 110k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Mafia: Definitive Edition out and predicted the genre from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Mafia: Definitive Edition's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.3M–4.0M
best case 5.5M (Watch_Dogs® 2)
Games like Mafia: Definitive Edition

The middle of these games

≈ 2.3M–4.0M copies

≈ $16.8M–$65.5M after Steam's cut

from ~64k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Watch_Dogs® 2 at ≈ 4.2M–6.8M copies, ≈ $57.9M–$155.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (2 of 3) and Third Person (2 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Hacking, priced around $50.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Watch_Dogs® 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$57.9M–$155.7M after Steam's cut $105.3M–$239.5M before the cut
$49.99
101k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldHacking
UNO
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before the cut
$9.99
54k reviews
Mostly Positive
Card GameMultiplayer
Mafia III: Definitive Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.1M–$35.2M after Steam's cut $23.8M–$54.2M before the cut
$29.99
64k reviews
Mixed
CrimeOpen World

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.