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How many copies did Watch_Dogs® 2 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4.2M–6.8M
$57.9M–$155.7M after Steam's cut $105.3M–$239.5M before the cut
from 101k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Watch_Dogs® 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Watch_Dogs® 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.7M–18.8M
best case 40.4M (Wallpaper Engine)
Games like Watch_Dogs® 2

The middle of these games

≈ 6.7M–18.8M copies

≈ $116.3M–$435.0M after Steam's cut

from ~189k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Exploration (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 30.8M–50.0M copies, ≈ $42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Exploration (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5. The breakout hits carry Mature + Utilities + Anime; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

No Man's Sky
2016
Est. copies
≈ 17.2M–28.0M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$284.5M–$764.9M after Steam's cut $517.2M–$1176.7M before the cut
$59.99
415k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldOpen World Survival Craft
Far Cry® 5
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$94.6M–$254.3M after Steam's cut $171.9M–$391.2M before the cut
$59.99
189k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction-Adventure
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.4M–$76.4M after Steam's cut $51.7M–$117.5M before the cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.7M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$301.6M–$810.8M after Steam's cut $548.3M–$1247.4M before the cut
$59.99
439k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 11.4M–18.4M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$187.3M–$503.5M after Steam's cut $340.5M–$774.7M before the cut
$59.99
233k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerZombies
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Assassin's Creed® Origins
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$72.9M–$196.0M after Steam's cut $132.6M–$301.6M before the cut
$59.99
128k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAssassin
Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.2M–$143.0M after Steam's cut $96.7M–$220.1M before the cut
$29.99
155k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.