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wishvane

How big is Wizards?

Estimated owners
≈ 11k–18k
from 441 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Wizards out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wizards's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.5M–11.0M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Wizards

The middle of these games

≈ 7.5M–11.0M copies

≈ $79.6M–$122.1M after Steam's cut

from ~243k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is FPS (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 57k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 38k to 182k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (3 of 8) and Shooter (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + PvP + Third-Person Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
11x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
RimWorld
2018
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$71.8M–$193.1M after Steam's cut $130.6M–$297.1M before the cut
$34.99
246k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Squad
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.0M–9.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$66.2M–$178.0M after Steam's cut $120.4M–$273.9M before the cut
$39.99
243k reviews
Very Positive
MilitaryRealistic
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.5M–$138.4M after Steam's cut $93.6M–$213.0M before the cut
$19.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
World of Warships
2017
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
156k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayNaval Combat
Paladins®
2018
Est. copies
≈ 10.5M–17.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
345k reviews
Very Positive
Hero ShooterFree to Play
Teardown
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.5M after Steam's cut $50.4M–$114.7M before the cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DestructionPhysics
Slay the Spire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 6.3M–10.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$43.1M–$116.0M after Steam's cut $78.4M–$178.5M before the cut
$24.99
218k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.