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How many copies did STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5.0M–8.2M
$55.4M–$149.0M after Steam's cut $100.7M–$229.2M before the cut
from 175k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.0M–3.0M
best case 39.3M (Black Myth: Wukong)
Games like STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™

The middle of these games

≈ 2.0M–3.0M copies

≈ $40.2M–$74.0M after Steam's cut

from ~86k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Combat (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Black Myth: Wukong at ≈ 30.0M–48.7M copies, ≈ $494.5M–$1329.5M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 27k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 14k to 836k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Combat (4 of 8) and Souls-like (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Mythology + Action RPG, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Mythology + Action RPG + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
4 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this niche is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.