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How many copies did Patrick's Parabox sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 144k–233k
$789k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before the cut
from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Patrick's Parabox out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Patrick's Parabox's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 54k–985k
best case 926k (Baba Is You)
Games like Patrick's Parabox

The middle of these games

≈ 54k–985k copies

≈ $450k–$8.5M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Baba Is You at ≈ 705k–1.1M copies, ≈ $2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Puzzle (4 of 4) and Exploration (3 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Puzzle + Logic, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

A Monster's Expedition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 43k–69k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$234k–$629k after Steam's cut $425k–$968k before the cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleOpen World
The Witness
2016
Est. copies
≈ 887k–1.4M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.8M–$26.2M after Steam's cut $17.7M–$40.3M before the cut
$39.99
21k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleExploration
Baba Is You
2019
Est. copies
≈ 705k–1.1M
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut $5.3M–$12.0M before the cut
$14.99
24k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleIndie
Taiji
2022
Est. copies
≈ 36k–58k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$247k–$665k after Steam's cut $450k–$1.0M before the cut
$24.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleNonlinear

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