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How many copies did The Confession sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–41k
$14k–$37k after Steam's cut $25k–$57k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Confession out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Confession's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 193k–506k
best case 1.1M (Sultan's Game)
Games like The Confession

The middle of these games

≈ 193k–506k copies

≈ $513k–$3.1M after Steam's cut

from ~8k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Sultan's Game at ≈ 868k–1.4M copies, ≈ $6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 449 to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Choices Matter (7 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Visual Novel + Choices Matter, priced around $18.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2025, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Reigns
2016
Est. copies
≈ 338k–550k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$278k–$748k after Steam's cut $506k–$1.2M before the cut
$2.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Choices MatterMedieval
Cultist Simulator
2018
Est. copies
≈ 430k–698k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.4M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.8M before the cut
$19.99
14k reviews
Mostly Positive
SimulationChoices Matter
Do Not Feed the Monkeys
2018
Est. copies
≈ 385k–626k
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before the cut
$15.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Point & ClickPolitical Sim
The Test: Hypothesis Rising
2020
Est. copies
≈ 147k–239k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$80k–$216k after Steam's cut $146k–$332k before the cut
$1.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationMultiple Endings
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut
2023
Est. copies
≈ 837k–1.4M
4.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.1M–$11.1M after Steam's cut $7.5M–$17.1M before the cut
$17.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Visual NovelChoices Matter
Sultan's Game
2025
Est. copies
≈ 868k–1.4M
4.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.8M–$24.7M before the cut
$24.99
35k reviews
Very Positive
Beholder
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
3.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before the cut
$13.99
31k reviews
Very Positive
Dystopian Choices Matter
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator
2025
Est. copies
≈ 140k–228k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$501k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $911k–$2.1M before the cut
$12.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
HackingStory Rich

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