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How many copies did Redfall sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 117k–190k
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before the cut
from 5k reviews (Mostly Negative)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Redfall out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Redfall's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 20.3M–30.1M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Redfall

The middle of these games

≈ 20.3M–30.1M copies

≈ $224.5M–$333.5M after Steam's cut

from ~529k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (5 of 8) and Survival (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry PvP + Survival + Battle Royale; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
5.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.0M–30.9M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
661k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.4M–68.9M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$466.2M–$1253.5M after Steam's cut $847.6M–$1928.4M before the cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.1M–39.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$165.8M–$445.8M after Steam's cut $301.5M–$685.8M before the cut
$24.99
494k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.6M–$208.6M after Steam's cut $141.1M–$321.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$195.8M–$526.4M after Steam's cut $356.0M–$809.9M before the cut
$49.99
469k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.3M–80.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
780k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation

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