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How many copies did Moonglow Bay sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 19k–30k
$129k–$346k after Steam's cut $234k–$532k before the cut
from 754 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Moonglow Bay out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Moonglow Bay's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–10k
best case 19k (Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration)
Games like Moonglow Bay

The middle of these games

≈ 2k–10k copies

≈ $5k–$25k after Steam's cut

from ~132 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is 1980s (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Atari 50: The Anniversary Celebration at ≈ 14k–23k copies, ≈ $159k–$427k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 59 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 6 to 106.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on 1980s (4 of 8) and Voxel (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with 1980s + Shoot 'Em Up, priced around $40.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SingleplayerVoxel

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