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How many copies did Alien Dawn sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$10k–$26k after Steam's cut $17k–$39k before the cut
from 100 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Alien Dawn out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alien Dawn's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–3.9M
best case 27.3M (Phasmophobia)
Games like Alien Dawn

The middle of these games

≈ 2.5M–3.9M copies

≈ $17.4M–$29.0M after Steam's cut

from ~76k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is First-Person (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Phasmophobia at ≈ 20.8M–33.8M copies, ≈ $114.2M–$307.1M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 18k to 114k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on First-Person (4 of 8) and Simulation (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Psychological Horror, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Horror + Psychological Horror + Co-op; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2025, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.