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How many copies did Paths & Danger sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$6k–$15k after Steam's cut $10k–$23k before the cut
from 82 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Paths & Danger out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Paths & Danger's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 105k–139k
best case 524k (Gloomhaven)
Games like Paths & Danger

The middle of these games

≈ 105k–139k copies

≈ $1.2M–$1.5M after Steam's cut

from ~3k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Gloomhaven at ≈ 399k–649k copies, ≈ $3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 970 to 8k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Tactical RPG (6 of 8) and Turn-Based Tactics (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Combat, priced around $35. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hard West 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 80k–129k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$657k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before the cut
$29.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based StrategyWestern
Urtuk: The Desolation
2021
Est. copies
≈ 63k–102k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$242k–$651k after Steam's cut $440k–$1.0M before the cut
$13.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
King Arthur: Knight's Tale
2022
Est. copies
≈ 186k–303k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.2M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.5M before the cut
$44.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Tactical RPGTurn-Based Tactics
Disciples: Liberation
2021
Est. copies
≈ 99k–160k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before the cut
$39.99
4k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGStrategy
The Last Spell
2023
Est. copies
≈ 338k–550k
3.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before the cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Very Positive
StrategySingleplayer
The Age of Decadence
2015
Est. copies
≈ 197k–321k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$813k–$2.2M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.4M before the cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Turn-Based CombatChoices Matter
Gloomhaven
2021
Est. copies
≈ 399k–649k
4.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.3M after Steam's cut $7.0M–$15.9M before the cut
$34.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
Online Co-OpDark Fantasy
Ash of Gods: Redemption
2018
Est. copies
≈ 106k–172k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$726k–$2.0M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut
$24.99
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
RPGSingleplayer

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