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How many copies did Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 115k–188k
$254k–$682k after Steam's cut $461k–$1.0M before the cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 896k–1.5M
best case 3.4M (Mirror)
Games like Chasing Tails ~A Promise in the Snow~

The middle of these games

≈ 896k–1.5M copies

≈ $1.2M–$6.7M after Steam's cut

from ~26k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Mirror at ≈ 2.6M–4.2M copies, ≈ $1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 556 to 7k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (8 of 8) and Sexual Content (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sexual Content + Anime, priced around $9. The breakout hits carry Match 3 + Psychological Horror + Multiple Endings; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Action Taimanin
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≈ 481k–781k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Free
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Sexual ContentNudity
Summer Memories
2020
Est. copies
≈ 621k–1.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.2M after Steam's cut $6.2M–$14.1M before the cut
$19.99
25k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
3.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before the cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NEKOPARA Vol. 0
2015
Est. copies
≈ 868k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$714k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut
$2.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeNudity
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
28k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
NEKOPARA Vol. 1
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before the cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiAnime
Tricolour Lovestory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 965k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$528k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $960k–$2.2M before the cut
$1.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDating Sim
NEEDY STREAMER OVERLOAD
2022
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.3M–$16.9M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$26.0M before the cut
$15.99
58k reviews
Very Positive

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