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How many copies did NEKOPARA Vol. 1 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
$4.2M–$11.3M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before the cut
from 27k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left NEKOPARA Vol. 1 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NEKOPARA Vol. 1's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.2M–21.4M
best case 124.1M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like NEKOPARA Vol. 1

The middle of these games

≈ 11.2M–21.4M copies

≈ $83.2M–$189.0M after Steam's cut

from ~394k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Anime (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 94.5M–153.6M copies. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (3 of 8) and Survival (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Shooter + FPS + Third-Person Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2026, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 30.8M–50.0M
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before the cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Bloons TD 6
2018
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$46.1M–$124.0M after Steam's cut $83.8M–$190.7M before the cut
$13.99
394k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Tower DefenseStrategy
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 94.5M–153.6M
7.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.7M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
227k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
302k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
VRChat
2017
Est. copies
≈ 9.2M–15.0M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
268k reviews
Mostly Positive
VRFree to Play
Palworld
2026
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.4M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$98.7M–$265.3M after Steam's cut $179.4M–$408.2M before the cut
$29.99
482k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldSurvival

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