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How many copies did Caravan SandWitch sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 95k–155k
$655k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.7M before the cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Caravan SandWitch out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Caravan SandWitch's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1k–14k
best case 54k (The Last Hope)
Games like Caravan SandWitch

The middle of these games

≈ 1k–14k copies

≈ $6k–$28k after Steam's cut

from ~192 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Last Hope at ≈ 41k–67k copies, ≈ $22k–$60k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 19 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1 to 83.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Interactive Fiction (6 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Exploration + Action Roguelike, priced around $2.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2025, and 3 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Last Hope
2016
Est. copies
≈ 41k–67k
5.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$22k–$60k after Steam's cut $41k–$93k before the cut
$1.99
986 reviews
Mostly Negative
ExplorationAction Roguelike
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護
2021
Est. copies
≈ 11k–19k
2.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $29k–$65k before the cut
$4.99
462 reviews
Very Positive
HorrorInvestigation
Hazeron Starship
2023
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14k–$38k after Steam's cut $26k–$59k before the cut
$19.99
104 reviews
Very Positive
ExplorationFPS
Drive Me to Hell
2024
Est. copies
≈ 7k–11k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$10k after Steam's cut $7k–$16k before the cut
$1.99
279 reviews
Very Positive
ActionRacing
A Day of Maintenance
2022
Est. copies
≈ 546–887
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $5k–$12k before the cut
$19.99
22 reviews
Positive
ExplorationDriving
Fightcore Forge
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$34–$91 after Steam's cut $62–$140 before the cut
$4.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
Early AccessAction
Frog Bard
2025
Est. copies
≈ 645–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$530–$1k after Steam's cut $964–$2k before the cut
$2.99
26 reviews
Positive
CasualShort
Coaching Simulator
2024
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$28–$73 after Steam's cut $50–$113 before the cut
$1.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
Early AccessSimulation

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