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How many copies did Kayak VR: Mirage sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 26k–42k
$164k–$442k after Steam's cut $299k–$680k before the cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Kayak VR: Mirage out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Kayak VR: Mirage's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.8M–5.1M
best case 12.7M (Assetto Corsa)
Games like Kayak VR: Mirage

The middle of these games

≈ 1.8M–5.1M copies

≈ $21.1M–$63.3M after Steam's cut

from ~48k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Assetto Corsa at ≈ 9.7M–15.8M copies, ≈ $53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Automobile Sim (4 of 4) and Driving (4 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Automobile Sim, priced around $20.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DiRT Rally
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
40k reviews
Very Positive
RacingSimulation
DiRT Rally 2.0
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.6M after Steam's cut $13.9M–$31.7M before the cut
$19.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.7M–15.8M
3.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut $97.1M–$220.9M before the cut
$19.99
173k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
Assetto Corsa Competizione
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.2M–$40.8M after Steam's cut $27.6M–$62.8M before the cut
$39.99
48k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.