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How many copies did Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6k–10k
$32k–$87k after Steam's cut $59k–$133k before the cut
from 236 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!) out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.1M–50.8M
best case 50.8M (Dead by Daylight)
Games like Bail or Jail(OBAKEIDORO!)

The middle of these games

≈ 7.1M–50.8M copies

≈ $148.8M–$304.1M after Steam's cut

from ~150k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

7 of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Dead by Daylight at ≈ 38.7M–62.9M copies, ≈ $212.7M–$571.8M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 46 to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Co-op (4 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Horror + Survival Horror, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2008 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dead by Daylight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 38.7M–62.9M
6.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$212.7M–$571.8M after Steam's cut $386.7M–$879.7M before the cut
$19.99
930k reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
Killing Floor 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$44.4M–$119.3M after Steam's cut $80.6M–$183.5M before the cut
$29.99
129k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesMultiplayer
SMITE®
2015
Est. copies
≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
120k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMOBA
DRAGON BALL: THE BREAKERS
2022
Est. copies
≈ 162k–264k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$892k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before the cut
$19.99
7k reviews
Mixed
MultiplayerAnime
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six® Vegas 2
2008
Est. copies
≈ 386k–627k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.8M after Steam's cut $1.9M–$4.4M before the cut
$9.99
6k reviews
Very Positive
TacticalAction
PAYDAY 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.6M–69.2M
4.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$117.1M–$314.7M after Steam's cut $212.8M–$484.2M before the cut
$9.99
674k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opAction
EA SPORTS™ FIFA 23
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
150k reviews
Mixed
Football (Soccer)Sports
Peekaboo Lite
2021
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
167 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessAction

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