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wishvane

How many copies did Max Payne 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4.1M–6.6M
$22.3M–$59.9M after Steam's cut $40.5M–$92.1M before the cut
from 64k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Max Payne 3 out and predicted the genre from its 6 similar games. Every figure here, including Max Payne 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 367k–1.1M
best case 829k (Sniper Elite V2)
Games like Max Payne 3

The middle of these games

≈ 367k–1.1M copies

≈ $2.3M–$4.7M after Steam's cut

from ~11k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 6 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Sniper Elite V2 at ≈ 631k–1.0M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Third-Person Shooter (6 of 6) and Bullet Time (3 of 6).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sniper + Stealth.
The era
The games you compared span 2008 to 2017, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sniper Elite V2
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 631k–1.0M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
25k reviews
Very Positive
SniperAction
Max Payne
2011
Est. copies
≈ 1.0M–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before the cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ActionNoir
Vanquish
2017
Est. copies
≈ 274k–446k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.2M before the cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
ActionThird-Person Shooter
Max Payne 2: The Fall of Max Payne
2008
Est. copies
≈ 919k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before the cut
$9.99
15k reviews
Very Positive
ActionNoir
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army 2
2013
Est. copies
≈ 265k–430k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$2.9M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.5M before the cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesAction
Sniper Elite: Nazi Zombie Army
2013
Est. copies
≈ 297k–483k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.1M before the cut
$14.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesAction

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