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How many copies did Dread Dawn sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 56k–91k
$309k–$829k after Steam's cut $561k–$1.3M before the cut
from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Dread Dawn out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dread Dawn's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–8.6M
best case 27.2M (The Forest)
Games like Dread Dawn

The middle of these games

≈ 1.3M–8.6M copies

≈ $9.5M–$198.7M after Steam's cut

from ~59k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: The Forest at ≈ 20.7M–33.6M copies, ≈ $113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 72k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 339 to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Survival (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition
2022
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
3.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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$89.6M–$240.8M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.5M before the cut
$59.99
219k reviews
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Open WorldCo-op
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2015
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≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Free
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77k reviews
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ZombiesSurvival
The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.7M–33.6M
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut
$19.99
681k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Far Cry® Primal
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$14.1M–$37.9M after Steam's cut $25.6M–$58.3M before the cut
$29.99
41k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldSurvival
State of Decay
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
17k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesSurvival
DESOLATE
2019
Est. copies
≈ 232k–377k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$957k–$2.6M after Steam's cut $1.7M–$4.0M before the cut
$14.99
8k reviews
Mixed
SurvivalOpen World
SurrounDead
2022
Est. copies
≈ 656k–1.1M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.2M–$5.8M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$9.0M before the cut
$11.99
26k reviews
Very Positive
ZombiesSurvival
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies

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