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How many copies did Just Cause™ 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 6.2M–10.1M
$34.3M–$92.2M after Steam's cut $62.4M–$141.9M before the cut
from 128k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Just Cause™ 3 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Just Cause™ 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.8M–9.7M
best case 26.7M (BeamNG.drive)
Games like Just Cause™ 3

The middle of these games

≈ 4.8M–9.7M copies

≈ $82.5M–$156.3M after Steam's cut

from ~190k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: BeamNG.drive at ≈ 20.3M–33.0M copies, ≈ $139.6M–$375.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 1k to 40k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Driving, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

BeamNG.drive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.3M–33.0M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$139.6M–$375.3M after Steam's cut $253.8M–$577.4M before the cut
$24.99
416k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SimulationDriving
Ring of Elysium
2019
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
99k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Battlefield™ V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$91.9M–$247.0M after Steam's cut $167.0M–$380.0M before the cut
$49.99
269k reviews
Mostly Positive
FPSMultiplayer
Battlefield™ 1
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.6M–9.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$61.8M–$166.1M after Steam's cut $112.3M–$255.6M before the cut
$39.99
227k reviews
Very Positive
FPSMultiplayer
Need for Speed™ Heat
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.8M–6.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$73.1M–$196.5M after Steam's cut $132.9M–$302.3M before the cut
$69.99
153k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.6M–$208.6M after Steam's cut $141.1M–$321.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Teardown
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$27.7M–$74.5M after Steam's cut $50.4M–$114.7M before the cut
$29.99
136k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DestructionPhysics
Space Engineers
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3.9M–6.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.3M–$57.2M after Steam's cut $38.7M–$88.0M before the cut
$19.99
134k reviews
Very Positive
SpaceSandbox

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.