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How many copies did Casino Heist sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 223–363
$490–$1k after Steam's cut $891–$2k before the cut
from 9 reviews (9 user reviews)
Thin evidence: 9 reviews. That range swings on one or two people, so read it as a hint, not a measurement.

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Casino Heist out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Casino Heist's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–7.4M
best case 10.2M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Casino Heist

The middle of these games

≈ 3.3M–7.4M copies

≈ $61.5M–$90.2M after Steam's cut

from ~139k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

3 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.8M–12.7M copies.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 15 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3 to 14k.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Dating Sim (6 of 8) and Visual Novel (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2025, and 2 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Persona 5 Royal
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.4M–5.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$56.7M–$152.4M after Steam's cut $103.0M–$234.4M before the cut
$59.99
139k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Persona 3 Reload
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$25.6M–$68.8M after Steam's cut $46.5M–$105.9M before the cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGRPG
Late photographer 3
2022
Est. copies
≈ 918–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before the cut
$4.99
37 reviews
Mixed
Female ProtagonistSexual Content
Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
227k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Space Bar at the End of the Galaxy
2020
Est. copies
≈ 471–766
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$646–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before the cut
$4.99
19 reviews
Mixed
NSFWNudity
Sol Dorado Heist
2021
Est. copies
≈ 322–524
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$442–$1k after Steam's cut $803–$2k before the cut
$4.99
13 reviews
Mixed
SimulationHeist
Ninki Seiyuu: How to Make a Pop Voice Actress
2021
Est. copies
≈ 6k–9k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$63k–$169k after Steam's cut $114k–$259k before the cut
$39.99
230 reviews
Very Positive
Multiple EndingsDating Sim
Casino Heist: Aruba
2025
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$306–$826 after Steam's cut $557–$1k before the cut
$8.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews

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