How much revenue did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter make?

$2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter sell?

Q: How many copies did The Vanishing of Ethan Carter sell?

503k to 817k copies, based on its 9k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 503k–817k; $2.8M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.4M before the cut; from 9k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Vanishing of Ethan Carter out and predicted the genre from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including The Vanishing of Ethan Carter's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 188k–3.1M

best case 5.4M (Firewatch)

Games like The Vanishing of Ethan Carter

The middle of these games

≈ 188k–3.1M copies

≈ $1.3M–$24.2M after Steam's cut

from ~30k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Firewatch at ≈ 4.1M–6.7M copies, ≈ $22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Mystery (4 of 4) and Story Rich (4 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
The era: None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Draugen 2019	Est. copies ≈ 62k–100k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $339k–$911k after Steam's cut $616k–$1.4M before the cut	$19.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	Story RichMystery
The Suicide of Rachel Foster 2020	Est. copies ≈ 171k–278k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $845k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before the cut	$17.99	7k reviews Mixed	Walking SimulatorMystery
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M 1.8x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before the cut	$19.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.7M 3.3x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$93.9M before the cut	$19.99	99k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric