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How many copies did Watermelon Suika Game sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 918–1k
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before the cut
from 37 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Watermelon Suika Game out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Watermelon Suika Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2k–3k
best case 11k (Candy Blast)
Games like Watermelon Suika Game

The middle of these games

≈ 2k–3k copies

≈ $2k–$3k after Steam's cut

from ~64 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Candy Blast at ≈ 8k–13k copies, ≈ $11k–$30k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 85 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 19 to 90.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Clicker (7 of 8) and Match 3 (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Clicker + Puzzle, priced around $5.
The era
The games you compared span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before the cut
$4.99
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Time ManagementPuzzle-Platformer
IllusionCircle
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–4k
1.5x vs typical
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$0.99
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CasualPuzzle
Milky Way Map
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Est. revenue
$505–$1k after Steam's cut $918–$2k before the cut
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61 reviews
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CasualStrategy
Candy Blast
2016
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$11k–$30k after Steam's cut $20k–$46k before the cut
$4.99
195 reviews
Mixed
ClickerPuzzle
Mighty Gemstones
2018
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≈ 2k–3k
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$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before the cut
$1.99
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CasualIndie
Swipe Fruit Smash
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Time ManagementPuzzle-Platformer
Fruit: Chain Effect
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Free
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CasualPuzzle
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Est. copies
≈ 794–1k
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$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before the cut
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SportsEducation

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