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wishvane

How big is DragonLoop: Prologue?

Estimated owners
≈ 2k–3k
from 82 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left DragonLoop: Prologue out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DragonLoop: Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5k–790k
best case 11.3M (Life is Strange - Episode 1)
Games like DragonLoop: Prologue

The middle of these games

≈ 5k–790k copies

≈ $12k–$3.5M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

5 of your 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is 2D Platformer (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Life is Strange - Episode 1 at ≈ 8.6M–13.9M copies.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 4 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2 to 837.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on 2D Platformer (4 of 8) and Metroidvania (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Choices Matter.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.0x vs typical
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MetroidvaniaLGBTQ+
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ActionStory Rich
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Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.