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How many copies did Forest Showdown:Cat Hero Battle sell?

Too new to estimate
Games in its genre land ≈ 4.4M–8.8M That is what its genre does, not a prediction for this game.
No reviews yet, so there is nothing to estimate from. That is not the same as selling nothing.
Does this actually work?

We left Forest Showdown:Cat Hero Battle out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Forest Showdown:Cat Hero Battle's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–8.8M
best case 12.7M (Assetto Corsa)
Games like Forest Showdown:Cat Hero Battle

The middle of these games

≈ 4.4M–8.8M copies

≈ $98.5M after Steam's cut

from ~150k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

4 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Assetto Corsa at ≈ 9.7M–15.8M copies, ≈ $53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
The games that made it here had under 21k reviews in their first month.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Simulation (8 of 8) and Sports (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Racing + Automobile Sim, priced around $20.
The era
The games you compared span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Assetto Corsa
2014
Est. copies
≈ 9.7M–15.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$53.4M–$143.6M after Steam's cut $97.1M–$220.9M before the cut
$19.99
173k reviews
Very Positive
RacingAutomobile Sim
PURRfection! The cat tossing game!!
2020
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$14–$36 after Steam's cut $25–$56 before the cut
$0.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
CatsCasual
City of Cats
2023
Est. copies
≈ 719–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$987–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before the cut
$4.99
29 reviews
Mostly Negative
AdventureCasual
Fisti-Fluffs
2021
Est. copies
≈ 918–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $9k–$21k before the cut
$19.99
37 reviews
Mixed
ActionCasual
EA SPORTS™ FIFA 23
2022
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
150k reviews
Mixed
Football (Soccer)Sports
FIFA 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
120k reviews
Very Positive
Football (Soccer)Sports
Fix My Cat Doc
2022
Est. copies
≈ 843–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$229–$617 after Steam's cut $417–$949 before the cut
$0.99
34 reviews
Mostly Positive
AdventureCasual
The Cat Games
2017
Est. copies
≈ 35k–56k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$19k–$51k after Steam's cut $35k–$79k before the cut
$1.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
CasualCute

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