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How many copies did The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 307k–498k
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.5M before the cut
from 12k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 12.7M–16.7M
best case 35.1M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like The Lord of the Rings: Return to Moria™

The middle of these games

≈ 12.7M–16.7M copies

≈ $157.7M–$203.5M after Steam's cut

from ~400k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

7 of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.7M–43.4M copies, ≈ $110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 183k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 148 to 470k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Crafting (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2026, and 3 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.7M–43.4M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut $200.2M–$455.4M before the cut
$14.99
776k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Palworld
2026
Est. copies
≈ 12.0M–19.4M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
$98.7M–$265.3M after Steam's cut $179.4M–$408.2M before the cut
$29.99
482k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldSurvival
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.5M–18.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.0M–$255.4M after Steam's cut $172.7M–$393.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Raft
2022
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$51.5M–$138.4M after Steam's cut $93.6M–$213.0M before the cut
$19.99
378k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalMultiplayer
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Valheim
2021
Est. copies
≈ 13.4M–21.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$110.6M–$297.4M after Steam's cut $201.1M–$457.5M before the cut
$29.99
541k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
rod (removed)
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8k–13k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
322 reviews
Mixed
Early AccessDwarf
Satisfactory
2024
Est. copies
≈ 6.9M–11.2M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$76.0M–$204.4M after Steam's cut $138.2M–$314.4M before the cut
$39.99
279k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Base-BuildingAutomation

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.