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How many copies did Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 7k–11k
$19k–$51k after Steam's cut $34k–$78k before the cut
from 166 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 541k–962k
best case 9.3M (Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition)
Games like Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises

The middle of these games

≈ 541k–962k copies

≈ $5.8M–$8.1M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Character Customization (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition at ≈ 7.1M–11.5M copies, ≈ $87.4M–$235.0M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 6k to 17k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Character Customization (4 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Trading Card Game + Turn-Based Tactics, priced around $45. The breakout hits carry PvE + Trading Card Game + Stylized; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2017 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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1.6x vs typical
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StrategySingleplayer

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