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How many copies did Meadowland sell?

Too new to estimate
Games in its genre land ≈ 1.4M–4.1M That is what its genre does, not a prediction for this game.
No reviews yet, so there is nothing to estimate from. That is not the same as selling nothing.
Does this actually work?

We left Meadowland out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Meadowland's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–4.1M
best case 25.3M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Meadowland

The middle of these games

≈ 1.4M–4.1M copies

≈ $8.4M–$39.7M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.2M–31.3M copies, ≈ $79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 10k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 23k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Metroidvania (7 of 8) and Platformer (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2013 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Ori and the Blind Forest
2015
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.8M
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
60k reviews
Very Positive
Great SoundtrackAtmospheric
Rogue Legacy
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Very Positive
RoguevaniaPlatformer
Pseudoregalia
2023
Est. copies
≈ 467k–759k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$770k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.2M before the cut
$5.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
3D PlatformerMetroidvania
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.4M after Steam's cut $24.0M–$54.5M before the cut
$39.99
42k reviews
Very Positive
Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.2M–31.3M
17x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$79.3M–$213.3M after Steam's cut $144.2M–$328.1M before the cut
$14.99
559k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ANIMAL WELL
2024
Est. copies
≈ 608k–989k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.2M after Steam's cut $7.6M–$17.3M before the cut
$24.99
25k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaExploration
Ori and the Will of the Wisps
2020
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.9M–$80.3M after Steam's cut $54.3M–$123.5M before the cut
$29.99
146k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
BeautifulMetroidvania
Dust: An Elysian Tail
2013
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.0M–$13.4M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before the cut
$14.99
19k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionPlatformer

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