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How many copies did Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 602k–978k
$5.0M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before the cut
from 14k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–2.8M
best case 2.8M (Persona 4 Golden)
Games like Sherlock Holmes: The Devil's Daughter

The middle of these games

≈ 1.7M–2.8M copies

≈ $14.4M–$19.5M after Steam's cut

from ~38k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Persona 4 Golden at ≈ 2.2M–3.5M copies, ≈ $11.9M–$31.9M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Story Rich (8 of 8) and Detective (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry JRPG + RPG + Party-Based RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Return of the Obra Dinn
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.7M after Steam's cut $10.6M–$24.2M before the cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveMystery
Danganronpa 2: Goodbye Despair
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.5M–$20.1M after Steam's cut $13.6M–$30.9M before the cut
$19.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeDetective
Persona 4 Golden
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.9M–$31.9M after Steam's cut $21.6M–$49.1M before the cut
$19.99
87k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
JRPGGreat Soundtrack
The Wolf Among Us
2013
Est. copies
≈ 2.5M–4.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.4M–$28.1M after Steam's cut $19.0M–$43.2M before the cut
$14.99
40k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureDetective
Persona 3 Reload
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.5M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$25.6M–$68.8M after Steam's cut $46.5M–$105.9M before the cut
$59.99
63k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGRPG
L.A. Noire
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.3M–3.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.8M–$34.4M after Steam's cut $23.2M–$52.9M before the cut
$19.99
37k reviews
Very Positive
DetectiveCrime
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.8M–$23.5M after Steam's cut $15.9M–$36.2M before the cut
$19.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.7M–$28.6M after Steam's cut $19.4M–$44.1M before the cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveVisual Novel

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