How much revenue did Stardew Valley make?

$177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Stardew Valley sell?

Q: How many copies did Stardew Valley sell?

43.0M to 69.9M copies, based on its 1.0M Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 43.0M–69.9M; $177.4M–$476.9M after Steam's cut $322.5M–$733.6M before the cut; from 1.0M reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Stardew Valley out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Stardew Valley's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 899k–1.4M

best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)

Games like Stardew Valley

The middle of these games

≈ 899k–1.4M copies

≈ $5.6M–$11.6M after Steam's cut

from ~33k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Crafting (3 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.5M copies, ≈ $22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 3k to 43k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Crafting (3 of 8) and Farming Sim (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Management + Fishing + Relaxing; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2019 to 2026, and 3 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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DAVE THE DIVER 2023	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M 4.9x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $22.0M–$59.2M after Steam's cut $40.0M–$91.0M before the cut	$19.99	161k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Pixel GraphicsCasual
Forager 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.0M–$18.7M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.8M before the cut	$19.99	44k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival