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How many copies did Half-Life 2: Episode Two sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2.6M–4.2M
from 41k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Half-Life 2: Episode Two out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Half-Life 2: Episode Two's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 22.5M–35.7M
best case 34.7M (Apex Legends™)
Games like Half-Life 2: Episode Two

The middle of these games

≈ 22.5M–35.7M copies

≈ $149.1M–$211.9M after Steam's cut

from ~563k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is FPS (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Apex Legends™ at ≈ 26.4M–43.0M copies.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 76k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 40k to 326k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on FPS (4 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS.
The era
The games you compared span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Cyberpunk 2077
2020
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$399.0M–$1072.8M after Steam's cut $725.5M–$1650.4M before the cut
$59.99
975k reviews
Very Positive
CyberpunkOpen World
Apex Legends™
2020
Est. copies
≈ 26.4M–43.0M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.1M reviews
Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Warframe
2013
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.4M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
676k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayAction RPG
Destiny 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 19.0M–30.9M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
661k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayOpen World
Portal 2
2011
Est. copies
≈ 29.4M–47.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.8M–$217.4M after Steam's cut $147.0M–$334.4M before the cut
$9.99
466k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 20.9M–34.0M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut
$19.99
428k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Deep Rock Galactic
2020
Est. copies
≈ 9.4M–15.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$77.6M–$208.6M after Steam's cut $141.1M–$321.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DwarfCo-op
Subnautica
2018
Est. copies
≈ 11.5M–18.7M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$95.0M–$255.4M after Steam's cut $172.7M–$393.0M before the cut
$29.99
379k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival

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