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How big is Team Fortress 2?

Estimated owners
≈ 79.0M–128.3M
from 1.2M reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Team Fortress 2 out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Team Fortress 2's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–6.2M
best case 34.7M (Apex Legends™)
Games like Team Fortress 2

The middle of these games

≈ 1.1M–6.2M copies

≈ $7.1M after Steam's cut

from ~39k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Apex Legends™ at ≈ 26.4M–43.0M copies.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 9k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 55 to 76k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Shooter (6 of 8) and FPS (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Battle Royale + FPS.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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Apex Legends™
2020
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≈ 26.4M–43.0M
27x vs typical
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Mixed
Free to PlayBattle Royale
Century: Age of Ashes
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Free to PlayDragons
Paladins®
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≈ 10.5M–17.1M
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Hero ShooterFree to Play
CRSED: Cuisine Royale
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Battle RoyaleFree to Play
POLYGON
2020
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≈ 917k–1.5M
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Free to PlayFPS
Dirty Bomb®
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≈ 2.8M–4.5M
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