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How many copies did Citadel: Forged with Fire sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 170k–276k
$700k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before the cut
from 6k reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Citadel: Forged with Fire out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Citadel: Forged with Fire's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.3M–8.3M
best case 35.1M (ARK: Survival Evolved)
Games like Citadel: Forged with Fire

The middle of these games

≈ 5.3M–8.3M copies

≈ $61.5M–$122.1M after Steam's cut

from ~147k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of your similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so the genre you lead with is still undecided.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.7M–43.4M copies, ≈ $110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (4 of 8) and Building (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
The era
The games you compared span 2015 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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2.0x vs typical
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≈ 6.0M–9.8M
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MilitaryRealistic
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≈ 3.6M–5.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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SurvivalOpen World
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
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≈ 26.7M–43.4M
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
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$110.1M–$296.0M after Steam's cut $200.2M–$455.4M before the cut
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776k reviews
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Open World Survival CraftSurvival
The Elder Scrolls® Online
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≈ 5.6M–9.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
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161k reviews
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RPGMMORPG
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≈ 5.9M–9.5M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
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Free to PlayMOBA
Insurgency: Sandstorm
2018
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≈ 4.0M–6.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
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$29.99
133k reviews
Very Positive
FPSRealistic

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.