How much revenue did The First Tree make?

$552k–$1.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The First Tree sell?

Q: How many copies did The First Tree sell?

201k to 326k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 201k–326k; $552k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before the cut; from 6k reviews (Mostly Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left The First Tree out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The First Tree's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–3.6M

best case 27.4M (Fallout 4)

Games like The First Tree

The middle of these games

≈ 1.7M–3.6M copies

≈ $14.8M–$36.4M after Steam's cut

from ~52k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Fallout 4 at ≈ 20.9M–34.0M copies, ≈ $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2k to 11k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Exploration (6 of 8) and Walking Simulator (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Post-apocalyptic, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry RPG + Shooter + Open World; a typical game here doesn't.
The era: The games you compared span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Stanley Parable 2013	Est. copies ≈ 2.9M–4.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.3M before the cut	$14.99	46k reviews Very Positive	ComedyNarration
Fallout 4 2015	Est. copies ≈ 20.9M–34.0M 8.2x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $114.9M–$308.8M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.1M before the cut	$19.99	428k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Firewatch 2016	Est. copies ≈ 4.1M–6.7M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$93.9M before the cut	$19.99	99k reviews Very Positive	AdventureAtmospheric
What Remains of Edith Finch 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.8M–2.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before the cut	$19.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Story RichAtmospheric
The Stanley Parable: Ultra Deluxe 2022	Est. copies ≈ 893k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.1M–$16.5M after Steam's cut $11.2M–$25.4M before the cut	$24.99	36k reviews Very Positive	Multiple EndingsComedy
SOMA 2015	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.1M–$56.7M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.3M before the cut	$29.99	52k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Psychological Horror
Journey 2020	Est. copies ≈ 950k–1.5M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $3.9M–$10.5M after Steam's cut $7.1M–$16.2M before the cut	$14.99	38k reviews Very Positive	BeautifulAtmospheric
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT 2022	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.4M–$49.5M after Steam's cut $33.4M–$76.1M before the cut	$39.99	67k reviews Very Positive	Story RichOpen World