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How many copies did Tin Hearts: Prologue sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
from 52 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Tin Hearts: Prologue out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Tin Hearts: Prologue's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 781–1k
best case 17k (HUMANITY)
Games like Tin Hearts: Prologue

The middle of these games

≈ 781–1k copies

≈ $598–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~25 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: HUMANITY at ≈ 13k–21k copies, ≈ $104k–$280k after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 21 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 12 to 153.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Puzzle-Platformer (7 of 8) and Lemmings (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Lemmings + Puzzle-Platformer, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Exploration + Singleplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
Only 1 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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StrategySimulation

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