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How many copies did Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 12k–20k
$50k–$134k after Steam's cut $91k–$206k before the cut
from 352 reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1 out and predicted the genre from its 3 similar games. Every figure here, including Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 622k–920k
best case 1.1M (NEKOPARA Vol. 0)
Games like Grisaia Phantom Trigger Vol.1

The middle of these games

≈ 622k–920k copies

≈ $1.7M–$2.4M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 3 of your similar games are hits.

From a small set, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: NEKOPARA Vol. 0 at ≈ 868k–1.4M copies, ≈ $714k–$1.9M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Anime (3 of 3) and Nudity (3 of 3).
The winners
Winners here lead with Anime + Nudity, priced around $3.
The era
None of the games you compared shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

NEKOPARA Vol. 3
2017
Est. copies
≈ 414k–672k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.1M after Steam's cut $2.1M–$4.7M before the cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiSexual Content
NEKOPARA Vol. 2
2016
Est. copies
≈ 535k–869k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.7M–$6.1M before the cut
$9.99
13k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeSexual Content
NEKOPARA Vol. 0
2015
Est. copies
≈ 868k–1.4M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$714k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$3.0M before the cut
$2.99
18k reviews
Very Positive
AnimeNudity

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