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How big is Captain Backwater?

Estimated owners
≈ 1k–2k
from 36 reviews (Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Captain Backwater out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Captain Backwater's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 423–2k
best case 14k (Sagrada)
Games like Captain Backwater

The middle of these games

≈ 423–2k copies

≈ $891–$2k after Steam's cut

from ~17 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

None of your 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Sagrada at ≈ 11k–18k copies, ≈ $30k–$81k after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 12 reviews in their first month; the spread ran 2 to 60.
Under about 100 in month one, almost nothing recovers.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Board Game (8 of 8) and Match 3 (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Board Game + Tabletop, priced around $10.
The era
Only 2 of your 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about your picks than about the market, so add newer similar games to read the timing.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Sagrada
2020
Est. copies
≈ 11k–18k
27x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$30k–$81k after Steam's cut $55k–$124k before the cut
$9.99
440 reviews
Very Positive
Board GameTabletop
JENTRIX
2022
Est. copies
≈ 422–685
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$927–$2k after Steam's cut $2k–$4k before the cut
$7.99
17 reviews
Positive
CasualBoard Game
Cursed House 11 Match 3 Puzzle
2022
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$272–$732 after Steam's cut $495–$1k before the cut
$9.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
Match 3Puzzle
Jigsaw Puzzle - Pro Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 403–655
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$553–$1k after Steam's cut $1k–$2k before the cut
$4.99
14 reviews
Positive
PuzzleRelaxing
Mike's Garden
2024
Est. copies
≈ 397–645
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$654–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before the cut
$5.99
16 reviews
Positive
Board GameMatch 3
Hanoi Puzzles: Solid Match
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
3.5x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before the cut
$2.99
57 reviews
Very Positive
PuzzleMatch 3
Shisensho Solitaire
2019
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
5.3x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before the cut
$1.99
88 reviews
Very Positive
SolitairePuzzle
siXide
2024
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$61–$164 after Steam's cut $111–$253 before the cut
$2.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
StrategyPuzzle

Sizing up your own game? See what its genre can realistically do before you build it.