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How many copies did Prototype™ sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 895k–1.5M
$4.9M–$13.2M after Steam's cut $8.9M–$20.3M before the cut
from 14k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Prototype™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Prototype™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.9M–7.3M
best case 34.4M (Red Dead Redemption 2)
Games like Prototype™

The middle of these games

≈ 5.9M–7.3M copies

≈ $51.9M–$90.9M after Steam's cut

from ~137k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Red Dead Redemption 2 at ≈ 26.2M–42.6M copies, ≈ $432.5M–$1162.8M after Steam's cut. A breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Third Person (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $60. The breakout hits carry Western + Realistic + Story Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
The era
The games you compared span 2012 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto IV: Complete Edition
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Middle-earth™: Shadow of Mordor™
2014
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$29.8M–$80.2M after Steam's cut $54.2M–$123.4M before the cut
$19.99
97k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Red Dead Redemption 2
2019
Est. copies
≈ 26.2M–42.6M
6.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$432.5M–$1162.8M after Steam's cut $786.3M–$1788.9M before the cut
$59.99
910k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldStory Rich
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$55.1M–$148.2M after Steam's cut $100.2M–$228.0M before the cut
$49.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.2M–$253.2M after Steam's cut $171.3M–$389.6M before the cut
$59.99
188k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
POSTAL 2
2012
Est. copies
≈ 8.7M–14.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$23.8M–$64.0M after Steam's cut $43.3M–$98.5M before the cut
$9.99
137k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ViolentDark Humor
Days Gone
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.8M–$85.5M after Steam's cut $57.8M–$131.5M before the cut
$39.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldZombies
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 5.0M–8.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$27.6M–$74.1M after Steam's cut $50.1M–$114.0M before the cut
$19.99
202k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction

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