How much revenue did Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ make?

$55.1M–$148.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ sell?

4.0M to 6.5M copies, based on its 117k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4.0M–6.5M; $55.1M–$148.2M after Steam's cut $100.2M–$228.0M before the cut; from 117k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 11.5M–29.1M

best case 37.5M (ELDEN RING)

Games like Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™

The middle of these games

≈ 11.5M–29.1M copies

≈ $221.1M–$593.2M after Steam's cut

from ~374k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: ELDEN RING at ≈ 28.6M–46.4M copies, ≈ $471.3M–$1267.1M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here

About half the games that made it here had over 171k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 145k to 347k.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Open World (8 of 8) and Fantasy (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Souls-like + Open World, priced around $60.
The era: The games you compared span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
New World: Aeternum 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.4M–12.0M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	297k reviews Mixed	Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
Monster Hunter: World 2018	Est. copies ≈ 15.7M–25.5M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $129.4M–$347.8M after Steam's cut $235.2M–$535.1M before the cut	$29.99	516k reviews Very Positive	Co-opMultiplayer
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition 2016	Est. copies ≈ 15.6M–25.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $172.0M–$462.5M after Steam's cut $312.8M–$711.6M before the cut	$39.99	376k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2011	Est. copies ≈ 20.1M–32.6M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before the cut	$19.99	318k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldRPG
Hogwarts Legacy 2023	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $152.1M–$408.9M after Steam's cut $276.5M–$629.1M before the cut	$59.99	372k reviews Very Positive	MagicOpen World
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.2M–70.2M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $593.9M–$1596.9M after Steam's cut $1079.9M–$2456.7M before the cut	$49.99	885k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $55.4M–$149.0M after Steam's cut $100.7M–$229.2M before the cut	$39.99	175k reviews Very Positive	Action-AdventureSouls-like
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.6M–46.4M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $471.3M–$1267.1M after Steam's cut $856.9M–$1949.4M before the cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World