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How many copies did Herd is Coming sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–3k
$463–$1k after Steam's cut $841–$2k before the cut
from 59 reviews (Mixed)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Herd is Coming out and predicted the genre from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Herd is Coming's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.5M–8.6M
best case 39.6M (Project Zomboid)
Games like Herd is Coming

The middle of these games

≈ 3.5M–8.6M copies

≈ $34.4M–$211.1M after Steam's cut

from ~97k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Project Zomboid at ≈ 30.2M–49.0M copies, ≈ $207.3M–$557.3M after Steam's cut.

What it took to get here
About half the games that made it here had over 42k reviews in their first month; the spread ran 7k to 327k.
The genre you'd be entering
Your set
Your set clusters on Open World (7 of 8) and Survival (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Zombies, priced around $25.
The era
The games you compared span 2010 to 2024, and 1 of your 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Project Zomboid
2013
Est. copies
≈ 30.2M–49.0M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$207.3M–$557.3M after Steam's cut $376.9M–$857.4M before the cut
$24.99
477k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies
Just Survive
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.7M–6.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
77k reviews
Mixed
ZombiesSurvival
State of Decay 2: Juggernaut Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.3M–$38.3M after Steam's cut $25.9M–$58.9M before the cut
$29.99
70k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition
2022
Est. copies
≈ 5.4M–8.8M
2.3x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$89.6M–$240.8M after Steam's cut $162.8M–$370.5M before the cut
$59.99
219k reviews
Mostly Positive
Open WorldCo-op
Days Gone
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.8M–$85.5M after Steam's cut $57.8M–$131.5M before the cut
$39.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldZombies
No More Room in Hell
2013
Est. copies
≈ 4.8M–7.9M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
76k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayZombies
S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Call of Pripyat
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.9M–$29.3M after Steam's cut $19.8M–$45.1M before the cut
$19.99
31k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AtmosphericOpen World
7 Days to Die
2024
Est. copies
≈ 9.9M–16.1M
4.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$122.7M–$330.0M after Steam's cut $223.1M–$507.7M before the cut
$44.99
400k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalZombies

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